Extended Country Program Evaluation Belize 2013-2025
Date issued
September 2025
Subject
Country Program Evaluation;
Country Strategy;
Monitoring and Evaluation
JEL code
H83 - Public Administration • Public Sector Accounting and Audits
Country
Belize
Category
Technical Notes
This Extended Country Program Evaluation (XCPE) assesses the relevance, effectiveness, and sustainability of the IDB Groups support to Belize during two Country Strategies (CSs) and the related country program between the 2013-2024 period. The evaluation aims to reinforce accountability for the expected results, promote learning, and improve the results of future CSs and programs. The evaluation used mixed methods, including a literature review, desk review of operational documents, portfolio analysis, in-depth studies, and semi-structured interviews (with IDB Group staff, government stakeholders, private sector clients, and implementing agencies of IDB and IDB Invest projects in Belize).
The IDB Groups Country Strategies (CSs) were wide-ranging, covering human capital, productive development, fiscal, climate resilience, and citizen security. While their objectives aligned with Belize's development needs and priorities, their relevance was weakened by their broad scope, unclear objective-selection rationale, and lack of specificity on IDBIDB Invest synergies. The IDB Group made contributions in human capital improving teaching quality, maternal and infant health, and COVID19 vaccination, which reached about one fifth of the population and in climate change, by enhancing resilience in Belize City and coastal areas. Lower contributions were linked to a program that was insufficient (like in citizen security) or poorly focused (like in the productive area), low operational maturity (like in the fiscal area), as well as implementation challenges, limited evidence on results, and external shocks. Results achieved have been generally sustained through institutionalization and capacity strengthening, but risks remain, particularly in infrastructure and tourism.
Based on these findings, OVE recommends: (i) strengthening the strategic focus and relevance of the new CS by clearly articulating a unified strategic vision that targets key constraints to inclusive growth and clarifies expected synergies with development partners; (ii) enhancing the CS and CP design to support the IDB Groups feasibility of contribution by clearly articulating a theory of change, ensuring consistency with the expected program and implementing effective monitoring; (iii) continuing working with the Government to improve project execution, strengthen the country's capacities, and address execution challenges linked to its small economy, and (iv) enhancing IDB and IDB Invest coordination, both in the development of the future CSs and during programming.
The IDB Groups Country Strategies (CSs) were wide-ranging, covering human capital, productive development, fiscal, climate resilience, and citizen security. While their objectives aligned with Belize's development needs and priorities, their relevance was weakened by their broad scope, unclear objective-selection rationale, and lack of specificity on IDBIDB Invest synergies. The IDB Group made contributions in human capital improving teaching quality, maternal and infant health, and COVID19 vaccination, which reached about one fifth of the population and in climate change, by enhancing resilience in Belize City and coastal areas. Lower contributions were linked to a program that was insufficient (like in citizen security) or poorly focused (like in the productive area), low operational maturity (like in the fiscal area), as well as implementation challenges, limited evidence on results, and external shocks. Results achieved have been generally sustained through institutionalization and capacity strengthening, but risks remain, particularly in infrastructure and tourism.
Based on these findings, OVE recommends: (i) strengthening the strategic focus and relevance of the new CS by clearly articulating a unified strategic vision that targets key constraints to inclusive growth and clarifies expected synergies with development partners; (ii) enhancing the CS and CP design to support the IDB Groups feasibility of contribution by clearly articulating a theory of change, ensuring consistency with the expected program and implementing effective monitoring; (iii) continuing working with the Government to improve project execution, strengthen the country's capacities, and address execution challenges linked to its small economy, and (iv) enhancing IDB and IDB Invest coordination, both in the development of the future CSs and during programming.
NO