Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): No. 48: March, 2015
Arce, Fernando; Powell, Andrew
The February 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered has decreased by 0.1%, from 3.2% to 3.1% while the GDP weighted average growth expectation fell by 0.4%, from 1.9% to 1.5%. Inflation expectations for 2015 have increased in the past month, by 0.1% on a simple average basis, from 4.3% to 4.4%, and by 0.3% on a GDP weighted average basis, from 5.0% to 5.3%. Comparing the January and February surveys, expected 2015 growth rose fell in the three largest economies covered in the REVELA database. Growth expectations decreased in Brazil (0.7%), Colombia (0.3%), and Mexico (0.2%). At the same time, they remained stable in Peru (at 4.0%) and increased in Chile (0.1%), Guatemala (0.1%), Paraguay (0.1%), and Uruguay (0.1%). Expected growth now ranges between 4.5% (Colombia) to -0.4% (Brazil). Inflation expectations rose in Brazil (0.6%), Chile (0.2%), Guatemala (0.1%), and Uruguay (0.1%) and fell only in Mexico (0.1%).