What Predicts Problems in Project Execution?: Evidence from Progress Monitoring Reports

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Dec 2018
This Technical Note aims to analyze project characteristics associated with problems in execution as reported in the Progress Monitoring Report (PMR), a tool used by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to monitor implementation of its projects. The analysis finds that most IDB projects are satisfactorily classified, and that across years projects’ classifications tend to either remain satisfactory or, in the case of previously low-graded projects, transition to a better classification, using a multinomial logit model, the analysis measures the probabilities of problem classifications associated with project characteristics. The analysis identifies a list of project particularities associated with a higher risk of a project having the lowest performance classification, including the type of executing agency, project modality, whether the project is multi-booked, location of the project team leader, frequency of changes of the team leader, project size, time between project approval and eligibility dates, whether the project is part of a Conditional Credit Line for Investment Projects, and the number of projects the respective executing agency manages. These results may be useful to the IDB in creating a project risk profile related to problems in project execution.