Understanding the Evolution of Agricultural Productivity in Colombia

Colombia has favorable agroecological conditions but continues to face low agricultural productivity. This paper examines total factor productivity (TFP) between 2015 and 2023 using stochastic frontier analysis on household- and municipal-level panel data. We decompose productivity growth and assess the effects of climate shocks, access to credit, rural public investment, and the peace agreement with FARC. Results show that output growth has been driven mainly by input expansion, with TFP increasing by less than 1% annually. Rural road infrastructure and low-interest credit are consistently linked to productivity gains, while input delivery and service programs show no measurable impact. Climate variability remains a major source of productivity fluctuations, highlighting sectoral vulnerability. The 2014 ceasefire with FARC produced heterogeneous effects: household-level productivity rose in previously affected areas, but municipal-level averages declined possibly due to land expansion into less productive zones. Findings underscore the need to shift from input-based support to connectivity, rural finance, and climate-resilient investments.