Theoretical Background on External Sustainability Assessments

Sep 2016
This paper explains in detail the external sustainability assessment approach given by the stock-flow relationship between the net external positions, non-income current account plus net capital transfers, and real exchange rate. This approach consists of determining the non-income current account over GDP that would stabilize a benchmark net foreign asset (NFA) position over the medium term, and a "gap" by comparing the NFA-stabilizing non-income current account over GDP with the nonincome current account expected to prevail over the medium term. Additionally, the paper addresses the role of the returns differential in explaining the channels through which the external sustainability adjustment may occur (i. e., trade and financial channels).