School Access in Rainy Conditions: The Role of Transport Infrastructure and Precipitation in School Absenteeism in Montevideo

School absenteeism remains a significant challenge across Latin America and the Caribbean, with serious implications for educational trajectories, particularly among vulnerable students. While absenteeism is determined by multiple factors, increasing attention has focused on how physical accessibility and travel conditions affect school attendance, particularly under adverse weather conditions. In Montevideo, where a substantial share of students walk to school, rainfall emerges as a particularly relevant disruptor. In this context, this study analyses the extent to which the quality of infrastructure providing access to schools mitigates the impact of rainfall on school attendance in Montevideo. To this end, a panel of data at student-day level is constructed, integrating georeferenced administrative data on students and schools, geospatial information on road and pedestrian infrastructure, and daily rainfall records. Based on this dataset, discrete choice models are estimated to assess the differential impact of rainfall on the probability of school absenteeism, considering the quality and availability of road and pedestrian infrastructure for school access. The results show that rainfall significantly increases the probability of school absenteeism in Montevideo, an effect that is mitigated under better transport infrastructure conditions, particularly where paved roads and pedestrian infrastructure are available. However, this tends not to be the context of the most vulnerable students, who are disproportionately exposed to poorer infrastructure conditions, compounding existing inequalities and increasing their exposure to rainfall disruptions, ultimately affecting effective access to education. Overall, the results indicate that better transport infrastructure can mitigate the effects of rainfall on school attendance, which provides relevant evidence for public policy design, highlighting the need to coordinate education, transport and climate resilience agendas.