Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): No 53: July 2015

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Aug 2015
The June 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectation for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA has decreased by 0.1%, from 2.8% to 2.7%, while the GDP weighted average growth expectation fell by 0.2%, from 0.9% to 0.7%. Inflation expectations for 2015 increased by 0.1%, from 4.8% to 4.9%, on a simple average basis, and increased by 0.3%, from 5.8% to 6.1%, on a GDP weighted average basis. Comparing the May and June surveys, expected 2015 growth increased in Peru (by 0.4%) and in Uruguay (by 0.1%), while it remained stable in Colombia and Paraguay, and decreased in Chile (by 0.4%), Brazil (by 0.2%), Guatemala (by 0.1%) and Mexico (by 0.1%). Expected 2015 growth now ranges between 4.5% (by Paraguay) and -1.4% (Brazil). Inflation expectations rose in Brazil (by 0.5%), Chile (by 0.3%), Peru (by 0.1%) and Uruguay (by 0.1%), remained stable in Colombia and Paraguay, and fell in Guatemala (by 0.3%) and Mexico (by 0.1%). Expected inflation, for 2015, ranges between 8.9% (Brazil) and 2.9% (Mexico).