Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA) - Issue 72

Sep 2017
The April 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2017 for the eight countries covered by REVELA declined compared to the previous month by 0.1% from 2.4% to 2.3%, while the GDP-weighted average remained stable at 1.3%. On the other hand, inflation expectations for 2017 remained stable both under the simple average basis (at 4.6%) and under the GDP-weighted average basis (at 4.5%) in April compared to March. At the individual country level, growth expectations rose only in Mexico by 0.2% from 1.5% to 1.7% and declined in three countries: by 0.8% in Peru from 3.3% to 2.5%, by 0.2% in Colombia from 2.6% to 2.4%, and by 0.2% in Chile from 1.8% to 1.6%. Inflation expectations declined by 0.1% in four countries: Uruguay from 7.9% to 7.8%, Colombia from 4.5% to 4.4%, Brazil from 4.1% to 4.0% and Chile from 3.0% to 2.9%. Contrarily, they rose by 0.1% in Mexico from 5.6% to 5.7% and in Peru from 3.1% to 3.2% compared to the previous month According to surveys in April, growth expectations for the region for 2017 ranged from 0.5% in Brazil to 4.0% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations ranged from 2.9% in Chile to 7.8% in Uruguay.