Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 65: August, 2016

The July 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA has decreased by 0. 1% from 1. 8% to 1. 7% compared to the previous month. The GDP weighted-average growth rate expected increased by 0. 1% from -0. 5% to -0. 4%. At the same time, inflation expectations increased by 0. 1% from 5. 3% to 5. 4% on a simple average basis, and remained stable at 5. 6% on a GDP weighted average basis. Growth expectations for 2016 rose by 0. 1% both in Brazil and Peru. They declined by 0. 4% in Guatemala and by 0. 1% both in Colombia and Mexico, while they remained constant in Paraguay at 3. 0%, Chile at 1. 7% and Uruguay at 0%. Expected growth for the region now ranges from -3. 3% in Brazil to 3. 4% in Guatemala. Inflation expectations for 2016 declined by 0. 2% in Peru and by 0. 1% both in Brazil and Guatemala, while they increased by 0. 3% in Colombia and Paraguay, and by 0. 1% in Mexico and Uruguay. Inflation expectations remained stable in Chile at 3. 5%. Inflation expectations for the region now range from 3. 2% in Mexico to 10. 3% in Uruguay.