Project Completion Report Analysis: Implications for the Portfolio

This investigation builds on the Alvarez et al. (2021) Project Completion Report (PCR) analysis and its aim is to assess the implications of that study for the current portfolio of projects under execution at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). We use the sample of PCRs which reached operational closure (CO) in 2017 and 2018 to estimate the impact that design and execution performance characteristics of projects played in the likelihood of ending as successful and/or effective. Based on the estimated coefficients, we construct risk curves to isolate the effect specific characteristics have on the likelihood of a project being classified as unsuccessful/ineffective. We then use the estimated coefficients and, using the actual values for the current portfolio of projects in execution, identify the fraction of the portfolio that is at risk of ending as unsuccessful/ineffective projects. According to our analysis, of the 249 projects assessed, 39 have a 50% or less chance of being successful. Thirteen (13) projects have less than a 10% chance. For about 70% of the projects analyzed, given the characteristics they exhibit, the likelihood that they end up successful has already been curtailed. The type of analysis presented here can help IDB Management identify key performance indicators to keep track of during execution to periodically assess the level of risk it is willing to accept in terms of projects ending unsuccessful/ineffective as rated by the current PCR methodology.