Prevalence of care dependence among older persons in 26 Latin American and the Caribbean countries

The rapid aging of the population will cause a sharp increase in the demand for dependency care services in Latin America and the Caribbean. In order to inform policy-making, in this study we present novel estimates of the number of dependent older people in 26 countries in the region. For 10 of these countries, estimates are based on existing survey data. For the remaining 16, we used a statistical model to predict the prevalence of dependency care based on the relationship between this condition and age, sex, and health status. The number of dependent older people in the years 2035 and 2050 is also estimated. On average, we find that 14% of the population over 65 years of age was dependent in 2020, and this figure is projected to grow to 16% in 2050. Driven above all by the increase in the elderly population in the region, the number of dependent older people is expected to almost triple in the same period, from 8 million in 2020 to 23 million in 2050.