The New Fiscal Normal: Vaccinations, Debt, and Fiscal Adjustment in Emerging Economies
What is the potential impact of vaccination programs and different fiscal adjustment scenarios on countries after suffering the macro-fiscal effects of the pandemic? We calibrate a DSGE model with an epidemiological module for the average Latin American and Caribbean economy that uses fiscal policy and vaccination to contain these effects. We find that there is a trade-off in the application of one of these policies. Focusing on vaccination has a high return in saving lives and improving economic growth but a lower fiscal adjustment. We conclude that simultaneous vaccination and fiscal reform is a successful policy combination that helps countries mitigate the health effects of the pandemic, reduce the economic cost of fiscal policy, and move toward a path of fiscal consolidation.