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| dc.title | Job Loss and the Role of Public Policies for Vulnerable Workers |
| dc.contributor.author | Bérgolo, Marcelo |
| dc.contributor.author | Ferrando, Mery |
| dc.contributor.author | Giaccobasso, Matias |
| dc.contributor.author | Vilá, Joan |
| dc.contributor.orgunit | Department of Research and Chief Economist |
| dc.coverage | Uruguay |
| dc.date.available | 2026-07-21T00:07:00 |
| dc.date.issue | 2026-07-21T00:07:00 |
| dc.description.abstract | Job displacement generates large and persistent income losses. This paper examines how alternative social protection mechanisms mitigate the consequences of job loss in Uruguay, a middle-income country with a relatively well-developed social safety net. Using matched employer-employee administrative data, we combine variation from mass layoffs with difference-in-differences and regression-discontinuity designs to estimate the effects of job displacement and the insurance value of two policies: (i) a traditional contributory unemployment insurance program and (ii) a noncontributory conditional cash transfer program targeting low-income households. We document that after employment falls it gradually rebounds, while earnings decline sharply, with labor income falling by about 50% in the short term, and remain below pre-displacement levels even five years later. The persistent earnings losses are primarily driven by lower post-displacement wages. Comparing the insurance value of alternative policy responses, we find that the cash transfer program provides substantial protection for vulnerable and middle-income workers facing layoffs, while unemployment insurance does not generate comparable medium-term gains. |
| dc.format.extent | 55 |
| dc.identifier.doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0014409 |
| dc.identifier.url | https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Job-Loss-and-the-Role-of-Public-Policies-for-Vulnerable-Workers.pdf |
| dc.language.iso | en |
| dc.publisher | Inter-American Development Bank |
| dc.subject | Labor Force |
| dc.subject | Labor |
| dc.subject | Unemployment Insurance |
| dc.subject | Forced Migration |
| dc.subject | Social Protection |
| dc.subject | Wage |
| dc.subject | Administrative Register |
| dc.subject | Poverty |
| dc.subject.jelcode | J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search |
| dc.subject.jelcode | J65 - Unemployment Insurance • Severance Pay • Plant Closings |
| dc.subject.jelcode | I38 - Government Policy • Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs |
| dc.subject.jelcode | H53 - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs |
| dc.subject.keywords | Job displacement |
| dc.type | Working Papers |
| idb.identifier.pubnumber | IDB-WP-01852 |
| idb.operation | RG-K1198 |