https://9p7pzq3jbl.execute-api.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/ProdStage Skip to main content
Publications
Advanced Search

View metadata

dc.titleJob Loss and the Role of Public Policies for Vulnerable Workers
dc.contributor.authorBérgolo, Marcelo
dc.contributor.authorFerrando, Mery
dc.contributor.authorGiaccobasso, Matias
dc.contributor.authorVilá, Joan
dc.contributor.orgunitDepartment of Research and Chief Economist
dc.coverageUruguay
dc.date.available2026-07-21T00:07:00
dc.date.issue2026-07-21T00:07:00
dc.description.abstractJob displacement generates large and persistent income losses. This paper examines how alternative social protection mechanisms mitigate the consequences of job loss in Uruguay, a middle-income country with a relatively well-developed social safety net. Using matched employer-employee administrative data, we combine variation from mass layoffs with difference-in-differences and regression-discontinuity designs to estimate the effects of job displacement and the insurance value of two policies: (i) a traditional contributory unemployment insurance program and (ii) a noncontributory conditional cash transfer program targeting low-income households. We document that after employment falls it gradually rebounds, while earnings decline sharply, with labor income falling by about 50% in the short term, and remain below pre-displacement levels even five years later. The persistent earnings losses are primarily driven by lower post-displacement wages. Comparing the insurance value of alternative policy responses, we find that the cash transfer program provides substantial protection for vulnerable and middle-income workers facing layoffs, while unemployment insurance does not generate comparable medium-term gains.
dc.format.extent55
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0014409
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Job-Loss-and-the-Role-of-Public-Policies-for-Vulnerable-Workers.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectLabor Force
dc.subjectLabor
dc.subjectUnemployment Insurance
dc.subjectForced Migration
dc.subjectSocial Protection
dc.subjectWage
dc.subjectAdministrative Register
dc.subjectPoverty
dc.subject.jelcodeJ64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
dc.subject.jelcodeJ65 - Unemployment Insurance • Severance Pay • Plant Closings
dc.subject.jelcodeI38 - Government Policy • Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
dc.subject.jelcodeH53 - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
dc.subject.keywordsJob displacement
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01852
idb.operationRG-K1198
Return to Publication