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dc.titleNowcasting Real GDP Growth in The Bahamas
dc.contributor.authorSaboin, José Luis
dc.contributor.authorGuerrero, Diego
dc.contributor.authorMazzocca, Angelo
dc.contributor.orgunitCountry Department Caribbean Group
dc.coverageBahamas
dc.coverageThe Caribbean
dc.date.available2026-05-29T00:05:00
dc.date.issue2026-05-22T00:05:00
dc.description.abstractThis paper introduces a novel real GDP growth nowcasting strategy based on a distribution of nowcast values derived from a large dataset and multiple variable combinations, specifications and estimators. We exploit structured and unstructured data from The Bahamas, using thirteen estimators from the econometrics and machine learning literature. The study begins describing our dataset with over three hundred variables from the national statistics system, satellite nighttime lights data for key geographic locations in the archipelago, and internet search trends. Next, we nowcast the seasonally-adjusted annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real gross domestic product using multiple combinations of variables, specifications and estimators. Overall, the ensemble method produces a distribution of nowcasts that outperform a human-designed benchmark. This paper contributes a novel idea of exploiting a distribution of estimates rather than point-values from a determined specification or estimator.
dc.format.extent76
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0014052
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Nowcasting-Real-GDP-Growth-in-The-Bahamas.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectGross Domestic Product
dc.subjectDebtor Finance
dc.subjectMacroeconomy
dc.subjectGDP Growth
dc.subjectEDGE Certification
dc.subjectMachine Learning
dc.subjectTourism
dc.subject.jelcodeC53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods
dc.subject.jelcodeC55 - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
dc.subject.jelcodeE37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
dc.subject.jelcodeO47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence
dc.subject.jelcodeC38 - Classification Methods • Cluster Analysis • Principal Components • Factor Models
dc.subject.jelcodeL83 - Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism
dc.subject.jelcodeO54 - Latin America • Caribbean
dc.subject.keywordsNowcasting;Tourism;machine learning;Time Series;Google Trends;nighttime lights;GDP Growth
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01816
idb.operationRG-T4588
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