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| dc.title | Estimating the Effects of Energy Price Shocks for Trinidad and Tobago |
| dc.contributor.author | Gauto, Victor |
| dc.contributor.author | Satnarine-Singh, Nirvana |
| dc.contributor.orgunit | Country Department Caribbean Group |
| dc.contributor.orgunit | Country Office in Trinidad and Tobago |
| dc.coverage | Trinidad and Tobago |
| dc.date.available | 2026-02-23T00:02:00 |
| dc.date.issue | 2026-03-02T00:03:00 |
| dc.description.abstract | For Trinidad and Tobago, positive energy price shocks can have deep impacts on several important indicators such as government revenue, GDP and the external sector. In ascertaining the impact of these price shocks, a structural vector auto-regressive (S-VAR) model was used and positive shocks applied to real GDP, the debt ratio, government revenue and government expenditure. This exercise was undertaken for the period 1970-2024, with a structural break identified which takes into account the change in the production structure of the economy from oil refining to natural gas processing. The main insight of the results indicate that the energy sector of Trinidad and Tobago is now less poised than in previous years to benefit from positive price shocks. The model also shows that price shocks had the largest effect on government expenditure. |
| dc.format.extent | 17 |
| dc.identifier.doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013985 |
| dc.identifier.url | https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Estimating-the-Effects-of-Energy-Price-Shocks-for-Trinidad-and-Tobago.pdf |
| dc.language.iso | en |
| dc.publisher | Inter-American Development Bank |
| dc.subject | Energy Price |
| dc.subject | Natural Gas |
| dc.subject | Gross Domestic Product |
| dc.subject | Petroleum |
| dc.subject | Fiscal Policy |
| dc.subject | Government Revenue |
| dc.subject | Economic Indicator |
| dc.subject | Public Debt |
| dc.subject | Public Expenditure |
| dc.subject.jelcode | C22 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes |
| dc.subject.jelcode | H11 - Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government |
| dc.subject.jelcode | H50 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General |
| dc.subject.jelcode | P22 - Prices |
| dc.subject.jelcode | P28 - Natural Resources • Energy • Environment |
| dc.subject.jelcode | Q48 - Government Policy |
| dc.type | Technical Notes |
| idb.identifier.pubnumber | IDB-TN-03303 |
| idb.operation | RG-T4569 |