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dc.titleFiscal Assessments Through the Lens of Firms: Corporate Perceptions and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy
dc.contributor.authorHirs, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorAndrian, Leandro Gaston
dc.contributor.authorValencia, Oscar
dc.contributor.orgunitFiscal Management Division
dc.date.available2026-01-26T00:01:00
dc.date.issue2026-01-26T00:01:00
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines how firm perceptions influence the transmission of fiscal policy. Using natural language processing on corporate earnings calls from 51 countries over two decades, we construct Fiscal Perceptions Indicators (FPI) that capture the incidence, risk framing, and tone of fiscal discussions. Periods of heightened fiscal concern are associated with rising sovereign spreads, weaker investment, and slower output growth. In response to exogenous fiscal shocks, effects on spreads and macroeconomic activity vary systematically with firm sentiment: favorable views compress spreads and strengthen demand. These results underscore the role of perceptions in conditioning fiscal transmission and provide a scalable cross-country measure of fiscal views.
dc.format.extent105
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013914
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Fiscal-Assessments-Through-the-Lens-of-Firms-Corporate-Perceptions-and-the-Transmission-of-Fiscal-Policy.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectFiscal Policy
dc.subjectNatural Language Processing
dc.subject.jelcodeE62 - Fiscal Policy
dc.subject.jelcodeE6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
dc.subject.jelcodeD84 - Expectations • Speculations
dc.subject.jelcodeC55 - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
dc.subject.jelcodeH63 - Debt • Debt Management • Sovereign Debt
dc.subject.keywordsFiscal credibility;Fiscal Policy Transmission;sovereign risk
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01770
idb.operationRG-T4608
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