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dc.titlePowering Through Drought: The Impact of Water Scarcity on Electricity Generation
dc.contributor.authorBagnoli, Lisa Serena
dc.contributor.authorBalza, Lenin
dc.contributor.authorBelmar, José
dc.contributor.authorMatías, David
dc.contributor.orgunitEnergy Division
dc.date.available2025-12-04T00:12:00
dc.date.issue2025-12-04T00:12:00
dc.description.abstractChanging weather patterns pose a fundamental challenge to electricity systems reliant on water resources. Using two decades of plant-level generation and fuel input data matched to hydrological basins in Chile, we show that local droughts reduce hydro output by about 20% on average and trigger sharp increases in thermal generation among plants with spare capacity. This substitution cushions short-run losses in supply and guarantees reliability of the system but creates a double burden for affected regions, which face both water scarcity and increases in local pollution. At the aggregate level, emissions from high-capacity thermal plants rise by roughly 34% during system-wide droughts, corresponding to about 1.4--1.8% of annual national emissions and 5.5--6.5% of the power sector's total. We also document that prolonged droughts were followed by expansions in thermal capacity, consistent with long-run lock-in of high-carbon-intensity technologies. Together, these results provide quantitative benchmarks for infrastructure planning, highlight the risk of path dependence in investment under climatic stress, and underscore the importance of ensuring sufficient capacity, diversification, and resilience in power system planning.
dc.format.extent66
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013848
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Powering-Through-Drought-The-Impact-of-Water-Scarcity-on-Electricity-Generation.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectDrought
dc.subjectHydropower
dc.subjectElectricity
dc.subjectScience and Technology
dc.subjectWater and Sanitation
dc.subjectInvestment
dc.subjectGreenhouse Gas Emission
dc.subjectInfrastructure Development
dc.subject.jelcodeQ54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming
dc.subject.jelcodeQ41 - Demand and Supply • Prices
dc.subject.jelcodeQ25 - Water
dc.subject.jelcodeO54 - Latin America • Caribbean
dc.subject.keywordsDroughts;Hydropower generation;Thermal generation;Electricity systems;emissions;Latin America and the Caribbean
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01785
idb.operationRG-E1915
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