View metadata

dc.titleThe Potential Distributive Impact of AI-driven Labor Changes in Latin America
dc.contributor.authorCiaschi, Matias
dc.contributor.authorFalcone, Guillermo
dc.contributor.authorGarganta, Santiago
dc.contributor.authorGasparini, Leonardo
dc.contributor.authorBertín, Octavio
dc.contributor.authorRamírez-Leira, Lucía
dc.contributor.orgunitDepartment of Research and Chief Economist
dc.coverageLatin America
dc.date.available2025-08-27T00:08:00
dc.date.issue2025-08-27T00:08:00
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices---the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the Complementarity-Adjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AI-Generated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)--to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI- related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies.
dc.format.extent68
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013677
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/The-Potential-Distributive-Impact-of-AI-driven-Labor-Changes-in-Latin-America.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectArtificial Intelligence
dc.subjectLabor Market
dc.subjectLabor Force
dc.subjectIncome Distribution
dc.subjectWorkforce and Employment
dc.subjectHousehold Survey
dc.subjectForced Migration
dc.subjectInformal Economy
dc.subject.jelcodeO33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences • Diffusion Processes
dc.subject.jelcodeJ21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
dc.subject.jelcodeD31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01748
idb.operationRG-K1198
Return to Publication