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dc.titleThe Impact of Crime Perception on Public Transport Demand: Evidence from Six Latin American Capitals
dc.contributor.authorDe Martini, Santiago
dc.contributor.authorGonzalez, Juan B.
dc.contributor.authorPerez-Vincent, Santiago M.
dc.contributor.orgunitInnovation in Citizen Services Division
dc.contributor.orgunitInstitutions for Development Sector
dc.coverageArgentina
dc.coveragePeru
dc.coverageChile
dc.coverageColombia
dc.coverageMexico
dc.coverageGuatemala
dc.coverageLatin America
dc.date.available2025-06-11T00:06:00
dc.date.issue2025-06-11T00:06:00
dc.description.abstractPublic urban transportation systems are essential for mitigating climate change, leading policymakers to intensify efforts to boost ridership. However, there is not much evidence showing up to what extent, in regions with high crime rates like Latin America, safety perception could limit these efforts. This paper studies the impact of crime and crime perception on public transport demand across six Latin American capitals. Using a sample of 5,160 participants, we conduct three preregistered experiments to quantify the impact of crime on public transport choices and policy preferences. In the first experiment, we estimate the willingness to pay for safety by offering participants a choice between buses with varying crime rates and fares. We find that users place a substantial premium (51% of the current bus ticket) on safer transport options. The second experiment explores the substitution effect between private and public transport, revealing that higher crime rates diminish the likelihood of choosing public transport, even when offered at a reduced fare. The third experiment examines how crime perception influences public support for different transport policies. Our results show that a higher crime perception shifts support toward crime reduction initiatives at the expense of service efficiency and environmental policies. These results highlight the need for policies that integrate safety improvements to increase public transport ridership and contribute to climate change mitigation.
dc.format.extent50
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013569
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/The-Impact-of-Crime-Perception-on-Public-Transport-Demand-Evidence-from-Six-Latin-American-Capitals.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectCrime Rate
dc.subjectCrime and Violence
dc.subjectBus Management System
dc.subjectCrime Prevention
dc.subjectCrime and Violence Prevention
dc.subjectMode of Transport
dc.subjectSubsidy
dc.subjectPublic Transport
dc.subjectCitizen Security and Crime Prevention
dc.subjectBudget
dc.subject.jelcodeR41 - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion • Travel Time • Safety and Accidents • Transportation Noise
dc.subject.jelcodeR48 - Government Pricing and Policy
dc.subject.jelcodeC91 - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
dc.subject.keywordsPublic Transportation;Crime;environmental policy effectiveness;Experiments
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01662
idb.operationRG-E1973
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