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| dc.title | The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations: Preliminary Findings |
| dc.contributor.author | Delgado, Martha Elena |
| dc.contributor.author | Herreño, Juan David |
| dc.contributor.author | Hofstetter, Marc |
| dc.contributor.author | Pedemonte, Mathieu |
| dc.contributor.orgunit | Department of Research and Chief Economist |
| dc.coverage | Colombia |
| dc.date.available | 2024-09-09T00:09:00 |
| dc.date.issue | 2024-09-09T00:09:00 |
| dc.description.abstract | We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the future expected exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in a small open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. This information treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we estimate a positive elasticity of current import expenditures to a future expected depreciation. Our estimates highlight the intertemporal margin of trade to anticipated changes in trade costs. |
| dc.format.extent | 60 |
| dc.identifier.doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013145 |
| dc.identifier.url | https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/The-Causal-Effects-of-Expected-Depreciations-Preliminary-Findings.pdf |
| dc.language.iso | en |
| dc.publisher | Inter-American Development Bank |
| dc.subject | Small Business |
| dc.subject | Inflation |
| dc.subject | Exchange Rate |
| dc.subject | Export |
| dc.subject | Economy |
| dc.subject | Inflation Targeting |
| dc.subject | Trading Cost |
| dc.subject.jelcode | E31 - Price Level • Inflation • Deflation |
| dc.subject.jelcode | E71 - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy |
| dc.subject.jelcode | F31 - Foreign Exchange |
| dc.subject.jelcode | G41 - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets |
| dc.subject.keywords | Expectations;Firms;Trade;exchange rate |
| dc.type | Discussion Papers |
| idb.identifier.pubnumber | IDB-DP-01075 |
| idb.operation | RG-K1089 |