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dc.titleNowcasting Poverty in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic: A Micro-simulation Approach
dc.contributor.authorEggers Prieto, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorMartin, Lucia
dc.contributor.authorMuñoz, Laucel
dc.contributor.authorSalamanca, Álvaro
dc.contributor.orgunitCountry Department Central America, Haiti, Mexico, Panama and the Dominican Republic
dc.coverageBelize
dc.coverageCosta Rica
dc.coverageDominican Republic
dc.coverageEl Salvador
dc.coverageGuatemala
dc.coverageHonduras
dc.coverageNicaragua
dc.coveragePanama
dc.coverageCentral America
dc.date.available2024-04-05T00:04:00
dc.date.issue2024-04-05T00:04:00
dc.description.abstractAssessing the development of countries relies on poverty rates as a key indicator. However, official poverty rates are derived from household surveys that often have limited frequency, unexpected gaps due to field work constraints, and substantial delays in processing and publication. This paper presents a novel micro-simulation method for estimating poverty, which introduces changes in demographic and labor variables into the surveys, that can be derived from just a few observed or forecasted macroeconomic indicators. We apply this method for the case of Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) and show that it outperforms the fit of other methods that solely rely on direct imputations from GDP to households income. Lastly, our approach can be easily replicated across countries and in different time periods, which is not the case for the majority of other micro-simulation techniques.
dc.format.extent40
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0012890
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Nowcasting-Poverty-in-Central-America-Panama-and-the-Dominican-Republic-A-Micro-simulation-Approach.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectPoverty
dc.subjectMacroeconomy
dc.subjectWage
dc.subjectHousehold Survey
dc.subjectPoverty Rate
dc.subjectGross Domestic Product
dc.subjectIncome Distribution
dc.subjectLabor
dc.subject.jelcodeC53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods
dc.subject.jelcodeD31 - Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
dc.subject.jelcodeI32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
dc.subject.jelcodeO10 - Economic Development: General
dc.subject.keywordsPoverty;Nowcasting;household surveys;Central America
dc.typeTechnical Notes
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-TN-02905
idb.operationRG-P1833
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