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dc.titleMinding the Output Gap: A Hamilton Filter Approach and Updated Estimates for the Brazilian Economy
dc.contributor.authorRossi, José Luiz
dc.contributor.authorSousa, José Eduardo Gonçalves de
dc.contributor.authorGutiérrez Briceño, Jose Alejandro
dc.contributor.orgunitCountry Department Southern Cone
dc.coverageBrazil
dc.coverageBrazil
dc.date.available2023-06-28T00:06:00
dc.date.issue2023-06-28T00:06:00
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops an alternative approach for estimating the potential output and the output gap, intending to serve as a good balance between a simple low data requiring method and a powerful but complex structural approach. We rely on the Hamiltons Regression Filter properties to generate a statistically robust estimator of the potential Gross Domestic Product level which overcomes the problems associated to the Hodrick-Prescott filter and improves the Production Function Approach (PFA). Furthermore, we use this methodology to update the estimates of the potential output and output gap for the Brazilian economy.
dc.format.extent23
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004981
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Minding-the-Output-Gap-A-Hamilton-Filter-Approach-and-Updated-Estimates-for-the-Brazilian-Economy.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectEconomy
dc.subjectDevelopment Bank
dc.subjectPotential Output
dc.subjectOutput Gap
dc.subjectGross Domestic Product
dc.subjectInflation
dc.subjectDebtor Finance
dc.subjectFiscal Policy
dc.subject.jelcodeC53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods
dc.subject.jelcodeC45 - Neural Networks and Related Topics
dc.subject.jelcodeE17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
dc.subject.keywordsMacroeconometrics;Output gap;Potential output;GDP;Brazil
dc.typeTechnical Notes
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-TN-02564
idb.operationBR-P1210
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