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dc.titleSelf-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations
dc.contributor.authorAyres, João
dc.contributor.authorNavarro, Gaston
dc.contributor.authorNicolini, Juan Pablo
dc.contributor.authorTeles, Pedro
dc.contributor.orgunitDepartment of Research and Chief Economist
dc.coverageArgentina
dc.coverageSpain
dc.date.available2023-02-17T16:45:59
dc.date.issue2023-02-16T00:02:00
dc.description.abstractWe assess the quantitative relevance of expectations-driven sovereign debt crises, focusing on the Southern European crisis of the early 2010s and the Argentine default of 2001. The source of multiplicity is the one in Calvo (1988). Key for multiplicity is an output process featuring long periods of either high growth or stagnation that we estimate using data for those countries. We find that expectations-driven debt crises are quantitatively relevant but state dependent, as they only occur during stagnations. Expectations are a major driver explaining default rates and credit spread differences between Spain and Argentina.
dc.format.extent56
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004743
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Self-Fulfilling-Debt-Crises-with-Long-Stagnations.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectInterest Rate
dc.subjectRating
dc.subjectSovereign Default
dc.subjectEconomy
dc.subjectFinancial Bond
dc.subjectDebt Management
dc.subjectGross Domestic Product
dc.subjectEconomic Development
dc.subjectPublic Debt
dc.subject.jelcodeE44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
dc.subject.jelcodeF34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
dc.subject.keywordsSelf-fulfilling debt crises;sovereign default;Multiplicity;Stagnations
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01447
idb.operationRG-K1098
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