View metadata

dc.titleFuture Health Spending in Latin America and the Caribbean: Health Expenditure Projections & Scenario Analysis
dc.contributor.authorRao, Krishna D.
dc.contributor.authorVecino Ortiz, Andres Ignacio
dc.contributor.authorRoberton, Tim
dc.contributor.authorLopez Hernandez, Angélica
dc.contributor.authorNoonan, Caitlin
dc.contributor.orgunitSocial Protection and Health Division
dc.coverageArgentina
dc.coverageBrazil
dc.coverageColombia
dc.coverageCosta Rica
dc.coverageMexico
dc.coveragePeru
dc.coverageTrinidad and Tobago
dc.coverageLatin America and the Caribbean
dc.date.available2022-04-08T18:04:00
dc.date.issue2022-04-08T00:04:00
dc.description.abstractLatin American and Caribbean countries will face significant increases in future health expenditures. A variety of factors are responsible - population growth and aging, the epidemiological transition to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), and economic growth and technology, among others. Increasing health expenditures are particularly concerning to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) given growing levels of debt, insufficient fiscal revenues, and high out-of-pocket payments. The projected average annual per capita CHE growth rate from 2018-2050 is slightly higher in Latin American countries (3.2%) than in the Caribbean (2.4%). The share of health expenditure in GDP is projected to increase to 2030 in all LAC countries except for Guyana. The effect of demographics and epidemiology on health spending growth are more modest. Among strategies to control NCD risk factors, a focus on hypertension control generally had the strongest effect on restraining CHE growth except in countries where smoking is particularly prevalent. The main driver of health expenditure growth is economic growth and technology, demonstrating the importance of adopting policies such as explicit prioritization systems and benefit plans that establish common rules for payers and providers that encourage cost-effective decisions. The underlying model for making projections and analyzing alternative scenarios is publicly available.
dc.format.extent84
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004185
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Future-Health-Spending-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean--Health-Expenditure-Projections--Scenario-Analysis.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectEconomic Development
dc.subjectHealth Expenditure
dc.subjectHealth Care
dc.subjectHealth
dc.subjectPopulation Aging
dc.subjectFiscal Policy
dc.subjectFiscal Burden
dc.subject.jelcodeH41 - Public Goods
dc.subject.jelcodeH51 - Government Expenditures and Health
dc.subject.jelcodeH68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
dc.subject.jelcodeI15 - Health and Economic Development
dc.subject.jelcodeO21 - Planning Models • Planning Policy
dc.subject.jelcodeO54 - Latin America • Caribbean
dc.subject.keywordsSpending;Latin America;Projections;Caribbean;Disease burden;Health Risk Factors
dc.typeTechnical Notes
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-TN-02457
idb.operationRG-E1768
Return to Publication