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dc.titleAn Amazon Tipping Point: The Economic and Environmental Fallout
dc.contributor.authorBanerjee, Onil
dc.contributor.authorCicowiez, Martin
dc.contributor.authorMacedo, Marcia
dc.contributor.authorMalek, Žiga
dc.contributor.authorVerburg, Peter
dc.contributor.authorGoodwin, Sean
dc.contributor.authorVargas, Renato
dc.contributor.authorRattis, Ludmila
dc.contributor.authorBrando, Paulo M.
dc.contributor.authorCoe, Michael T.
dc.contributor.authorNeill, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorDamiani, Octavio
dc.contributor.orgunitEnvironment, Rural Development and Risk Management Division
dc.coverageBrazil
dc.coverageColombia
dc.coveragePeru
dc.coverageBolivia
dc.coverageEcuador
dc.date.available2021-07-08T00:00:00
dc.date.issue2021-07-08T00:00:00
dc.description.abstractThe Amazon biome, despite its resilience, is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer possible. This is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. In this paper, we develop scenarios that represent movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of these scenarios using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with high resolution spatial land use land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEMESM). This papers main contributions are developing: (i) a framework for evaluating strategies to avert an Amazon tipping point based on their relative costs, benefits and trade-offs, and; (ii) a first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of movement towards an Amazon tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. We find that a conservative estimate of the cumulative regional cost through 2050 of an Amazon tipping point would be US$256.6 billion in Gross Domestic Product. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in climate-adapted agriculture, and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth. From a public investment perspective, the returns to implementing strategies for averting a tipping point would be US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can pave the way for evidence-based approaches to support policy action focusing on the design of regional strategies for the Amazon biome and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable their implementation.
dc.format.extent106
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003385
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/An-Amazon-Tipping-Point-The-Economic-and-Environmental-Fallout.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.mediumAdobe PDF
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectNatural Capital
dc.subjectBiodiversity
dc.subjectGDP Growth
dc.subjectEcosystem Service
dc.subjectEnvironmental Economy
dc.subjectGross Domestic Product
dc.subjectIEEM Platform
dc.subject.jelcodeQ15 - Land Ownership and Tenure • Land Reform • Land Use • Irrigation • Agriculture and Environment
dc.subject.jelcodeQ5 - Environmental Economics
dc.subject.jelcodeC68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
dc.subject.jelcodeQ2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation
dc.subject.jelcodeE21 - Consumption • Saving • Wealth
dc.subject.keywordsclimate change;Agriculture;decarbonization;ecosystem services modeling;Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform;dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01259
idb.operationRG-E1603
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