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dc.titleVoter Preferences, Electoral Promises, and the Composition of Public Spending
dc.contributor.authorKeefer, Philip
dc.contributor.authorScartascini, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorVlaicu, Razvan
dc.contributor.orgunitDepartment of Research and Chief Economist
dc.coverageLatin America
dc.date.available2020-06-16T00:00:00
dc.date.issue2020-06-16T00:00:00
dc.description.abstractThis paper proposes and empirically tests a new demand-side explanation for distortions in public spending composition. Voters prefer spending with certain and immediate benefits when they have low trust in electoral promises and high discount rates. The paper incorporates these characteristics of voter choices into a probabilistic voting model with public spending tradeoffs. In equilibrium, candidates promising larger allocations to transfers and short-term public goods are more likely to win elections in settings with low trust and high impatience. An original survey of individual-level preferences for public spending in seven Latin American capital cities provides observational and experimental evidence consistent with the model-derived hypotheses. Respondents reporting low trust in politician promises are more likely to prefer transfers to public goods; respondents with high discount rates prefer short-term to long-term spending. These patterns also appear in country-level data on spending outcomes from the last two decades.
dc.format.extent64
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002434
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Voter-Preferences-Electoral-Promises-and-the-Composition-of-Public-Spending.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.mediumAdobe PDF
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectElections
dc.subjectPublic Investment
dc.subjectCrime and Violence
dc.subjectPublic Expenditure
dc.subjectGovernment Budget
dc.subjectEducation Expenditure
dc.subjectPublic Good
dc.subjectInterest Rate
dc.subject.jelcodeD72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
dc.subject.jelcodeH20 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General
dc.subject.jelcodeO10 - Economic Development: General
dc.subject.jelcodeH50 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General
dc.subject.keywordspublic investment;public goods;Trust;Spending composition;Voter preferences;Discounting;Transfers
idb.identifier.pubnumberIDB-WP-01123
idb.operationRG-E1666
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