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| dc.title | Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis |
| dc.contributor.author | Vaughan, William J. |
| dc.contributor.author | Darling, Arthur H. |
| dc.contributor.author | Rodríguez, Diego J. |
| dc.contributor.orgunit | Sustainable Development Department |
| dc.coverage | Brazil |
| dc.date.available | 2011-08-15T00:00:00 |
| dc.date.issue | 2000-07-01T00:00:00 |
| dc.description.abstract | This technical paper argues that Monte Carlo risk analysis offers a more comprehensive and informative way to look at project risk ex-ante than the traditional (and often arbitrary), one-influence-at-atime sensitivity analysis approach customarily used in IDB analyses of economic feasibility. The case for probabilistic risk analysis is made using data from a project for cleaning up the Tietê river in São Paulo, Brazil. A number of ways to handle uncertainty about benefits are proposed, and their implications for the project acceptance decision and the consequent degree of presumed project risk are explained and illustrated. |
| dc.format.extent | 43 |
| dc.identifier.doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008825 |
| dc.identifier.url | https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Uncertainty-in-the-Economic-Appraisal-of-Water-Quality-Improvement-Investments-The-Case-for-Project-Risk-Analysis.pdf |
| dc.language.iso | en |
| dc.medium | Adobe PDF |
| dc.publisher | Inter-American Development Bank |
| dc.subject | Water Services |
| dc.subject | Water Supply and Sanitation |
| dc.subject.keywords | tiete river;Water Resources;Environment;Environmental Law and Economics;brazil;risk analysis;Urban Environment |
| dc.type | Technical Notes |
| idb.identifier.pubnumber | Technical Notes |