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dc.titleCapital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?
dc.contributor.authorPowell, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorTavella, Pilar
dc.contributor.orgunitDepartment of Research and Chief Economist
dc.coverageThe Caribbean
dc.coverageSouth America
dc.coverageCentral America
dc.date.available2012-10-03T00:00:00
dc.date.issue2012-06-19T00:00:00
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes capital inflow surges in emerging economies from 1980 to 2005. Estimated probit models are used, which discriminate well between surges associated with banking crises or recessions, and those surges that end without such events. The results indicate that the composition of inflows and the extent of financial reform are significant determinants of outcomes. Estimated models are applied to the Latin American post-2005 inflow surge and find relatively high estimated probabilities for banking crises and recessions. This suggests that recent inflow surges characterized by high portfolio and banking inflows are a potential cause for concern and that the results constitute a prima facie case for macro prudential interventions.
dc.format.extent32
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011412
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Capital-Inflow-Surges-in-Emerging-Economies-How-Worried-Should-LAC-Be.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.mediumAdobe PDF
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectFinancial Sector
dc.subjectFinancial Crisis and Structural Adjustement
dc.subjectMonetary Policy
dc.subject.jelcodeC25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models • Discrete Regressors • Proportions • Probabilities
dc.subject.jelcodeE44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
dc.subject.jelcodeF34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
dc.subject.jelcodeG01 - Financial Crises
dc.subject.keywordsBanking crisis, Financial crisis, Probit
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberWorking Papers
idb.operationRG-K1089
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