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dc.titleCatastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth
dc.contributor.authorCavallo, Eduardo A.
dc.contributor.authorNoy, Ilan
dc.contributor.authorPantano, Juan
dc.contributor.authorGaliani, Sebastián
dc.contributor.orgunitDepartment of Research and Chief Economist
dc.coverageThe Caribbean
dc.coverageCentral America
dc.coverageSouth America
dc.date.available2011-02-07T00:00:00
dc.date.issue2010-06-17T00:00:00
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the short and long-run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. The counterfactual of the cases studied is assessed by constructing synthetic control groups, taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. It is found that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output, both in the short and long run. However, this result appears in two events where radical political revolutions followed the natural disasters. Once these political changes are controlled for, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth. It is also found that smaller, but still very large natural disasters, have no discernible effect on output.
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0010949
dc.identifier.urlhttps://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Catastrophic-Natural-Disasters-and-Economic-Growth.pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.mediumAdobe PDF
dc.publisherInter-American Development Bank
dc.subjectDisaster
dc.subject.jelcodeO40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
dc.subject.jelcodeO47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence
dc.subject.keywordsIDB-WP-183
dc.typeWorking Papers
idb.identifier.pubnumberWorking Papers
idb.operationRG-K1089
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