The Impact of Net Metering Policy Design on the Adoption Rate of Solar Photovoltaic Systems: A Simulation Using Calibrated Data from Brazil

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Dec 2018
Net Metering (NM) policies has been widely used as a mechanism to allow the inclusion of distributed generation (DG) resources in the energy system, especially the adoption of solar photovoltaic systems by small consumers like households and small business. The main objective of a NM policy is to permit consumers connected to the utility grid to offset the consumption by inputting self-generation surplus into the network. The regulatory and policy framework is key to determine the economics of DG (investment costs and benefits), as consequence to determine the adoption potential. We use individual data of consumers in Brazil, obtained from ANEEL’s Consumers Satisfaction Index, to calibrate a Bass Diffusion model integrated with the project viability model. The results show that with a reasonable 3.6% of capital cost decreasing per year, in 15 years (circa 2030) the PV project will be viable for 50% of the consumers. We finish the note with Net Metering policy recommendations.