Growth and the Demographic Turn: Development Finance in an Age of Far-Reaching Population Change

This publication, prepared by Professor Geoff Mulgan for IDB Lab, examines how profound demographic shifts -particularly declining birth rates and population aging- pose a critical challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean. Far from being a distant issue, these trends are already reshaping societies and economies across the region.

The paper argues that, if managed strategically, demographic change can become a driver of economic and social progress rather than a source of crisis. Achieving this requires urgent transformation in public policy, institutional design, and the organization of public and development finance. Governments and stakeholders must rethink how they allocate resources and design systems to respond to new demographic realities.

To support this transition, the document provides a detailed diagnosis of the regions demographic challenges and outlines policy options in key areas such as active aging, care economy, labor markets, migration, public innovation, and fiscal reform. These recommendations aim to help countries turn demographic pressures into opportunities for inclusive growth and resilience.