Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower and Electricity Demand in Suriname

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San Salvador Del Valle, María;
Abadal, Jordi
May 2022
Climate change is expected to impact electricity generation and demand in Suriname significantly. Of all the generation technologies, hydroelectric energy will be the most affected. Research in this area has provided projections for variation in rainfall, water availability, and hydroelectric generation at the global, national, and local levels. This report presents two case studies that analyze the impacts of climate change on the energy sector of Suriname, providing specific examples to understand and value these impacts. The first case focuses on the impacts of climate change on the Afobaka hydroelectric power plant. Specifically, it analyzes the historical correlation between rainfall, inflow, and generation. The results show that precipitation strongly influences water inflow at the hydropower plant, and the projection using various climate models under two scenarios shows a 9 to 14 percent reduction in inflow by the end of the century. The second case addresses the impacts of climate change on electricity demand in the Paramaribo area. In this case, the correlation between cooling degree days and energy demand was examined. No significant correlation was found between comfort temperature and electricity demand. Thus, it does not seem plausible to estimate future electricity demand based on climate projections using the available data.