Caribbean Region Quarterly Bulletin: Volume 8 Issue 2: June 2019

Date
Jun 2019
The Year 2019 and Beyond
• Following the recent strong performance of the global economy, forecasts are slightly less optimistic for the future. In addition, downside risks have increased and the likelihood of better than expected performance has declined.
• The situation in the Caribbean has continued to improve. Although the projected average growth for 2019 has increased, trends in different countries vary considerably. Going forward, projections for the Caribbean, in general, have been revised downwards in line with the expected moderation of global economic growth. In addition, considerable differences are emerging in terms of policy because, starting in 2019, the tourism-dependent countries are expected to have positive primary balances.
• The longer-term outlook remains subdued but positive. Predictions for the 2020-2023 growth are above the 2007-2018 averages for all the Caribbean countries analyzed here. Excluding Guyana, the IMF forecasts an average growth rate of 1 percent for the Caribbean countries during 2020-2023, well above the average rate (0.1 percent) over 2007-2018.Following the recent strong performance of the world economy, forecasts are slightly less optimistic going forward. In addition, downside risks have increased and the likelihood of better-than-expected performance has declined.