Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

Amid public skepticism toward trade, we investigate whether evidence-based information - concise statements of research findings - can shape trade policy preferences. In survey experiments conducted on U.S. general population samples from 2018-2022, we consistently uncover a “backfire effect”: information highlighting the benefits of trade, such as job gains in productive sectors or lower prices for consumers, induces protectionist preferences. We interpret this effect as stemming from prior-biased belief updating, whereby the information activates pre-existing concerns about competition for jobs and trade relations with China. These associations are evoked particularly among limited-attention respondents, as well as politically-engaged Republicans.