Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 67: October, 2016
Sosa, Mariano; Powell, Andrew
The October 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA remained stable at 1.7% compared to September while the GDP-weighted average growth rate fell by 0.1% from -0.4% to -0.5% compared to the previous month. At the individual country level, growth expectations increased in Paraguay by 0.4%, in Uruguay by 0.2%, and in Chile and Peru by 0.1%. They decreased in Colombia by 0.3% and in Guatemala by 0.2% and remained stable Mexico at 2.1% and Brazil at -3.2%. On the other hand, inflation expectations for the region for 2016 fell by 0.2% on a simple average basis from 5.2% to 5.0% and also by 0.2% on a GDP weighted average basis from 5.6% to 5.4%. Inflation expectations fell in Brazil by 0.4%, in Colombia and Uruguay by 0.3%, in Chile by 0.2% and in Paraguay by 0.1%. They increased by 0.1% both in Guatemala and Mexico and remained stable only in Peru at 3.3%. According to surveys in November, expected growth in the region for 2016 ranged from -3.2% in Brazil to 3.9% in Peru, while expected inflation ranged from 3.2% in Chile to 8.9% in Uruguay. Inflation expectations for 2016 ranged from 3.2% in Mexico to 9.2% in Uruguay.