Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 67: October, 2016
Sosa, Mariano; Powell, Andrew
The September 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA has remained stable at 1.7% compared to August. Also the GDP weighted-average growth rate expected for 2016 remained stable at -0.4% from August to September. Similarly, inflation expectations for 2016 remained stable at 5.2% on a simple average basis but decreased by 0.1% from 5.7% to 5.6% on a GDP weighted average basis. Growth expectations for 2016 increased by 0.2% in Uruguay and by 0.1% in Paraguay. They fell by 0.1% in Mexico and remained stable in Brazil at -3.2%, Chile at 1.6%, Colombia at 2.8%, Guatemala at 3.4% and Peru at 3.8%. Expected growth for 2016 ranged from -3.2% in Brazil to 3.8% in Peru. Inflation expectations for 2016 increased in Peru by 0.3% and Mexico by 0.1%. They decreased in Colombia by 0.5%, Paraguay and Uruguay by 0.2% in both cases and in Chile by 0.1%. Finally inflation expectations remained constant in Brazil at 7.3% and Guatemala at 4.5% compared to the previous month. Inflation expectations for 2016 ranged from 3.2% in Mexico to 9.2% in Uruguay.