Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 64: July, 2016
Sosa, Mariano; Powell, Andrew
The June 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA has increased by 0.1% from 1.7% to 1.8% compared to the previous month. The GDP weighted-average growth rate expected also rose by 0.2% from -0.7% to -0.5%. At the same time, inflation expectations fell by 0.1% from 5.3% to 5.2% on a simple average basis, and remained constant at 5.5% on a GDP weighted average basis. Growth expectations for 2016 rose in Brazil by 0.5%, in Peru by 0.2% and in Guatemala by 0.1%, and decreased in Uruguay by 0.3% compared to May. Growth expectations remained constant in Paraguay at 3.0%, Colombia at 2.9%, Mexico at 2.4% and Chile at 1.7%. Expected growth for the region now ranges from -3.4% in Brazil to 3.8% in Guatemala. Inflation expectations for 2016 decreased in Colombia by 0.8% and Paraguay by 0.3%, while they increased in Brazil and Uruguay by 0.2% and in Guatemala by 0.1%, and remained stable in Peru and Chile at 3.5% and in Mexico at 3.1%. Inflation expectations for the region now range from 3.1% in Mexico to 10.3% in Uruguay.