Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 63: June, 2016
Sosa, Mariano; Powell, Andrew
The May 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that simple average growth expectations for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have remained constant at 1.7% compared to the previous month. Similarly, the GDP weighted average growth expectations remained stable at -0.7%. Also inflation expectations for 2016 remained stable in May compared to previous month both on the simple average basis at 5.3% and on the GDP weighted average basis at 5.5%. At the individual country level, growth expectations remained constant in six countries: Guatemala at 3.7%, Paraguay at 3.0%, Colombia at 2.9%, Mexico at 2.4%, Chile at 1.7% and Uruguay at 0.3% and decreased by 0.1% in both Brazil and Peru. Inflation expectations fell in Mexico by 0.1%, remained constant in Uruguay at 10.1%, in Colombia at 6.0%, in Paraguay at 4.8%, and in Chile and Peru at 3.5%. Finally, they increased in Paraguay by 0.2% and in Brazil and Guatemala by 0.1% in both countries. Expected growth for the region is as low as -3.9% for Brazil and as high as 3.7% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges from 3.1% in Mexico to 10.1% in Uruguay.