Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 62: May, 2016
Sosa, Mariano; Powell, Andrew
The April 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that simple average growth expectations for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have decreased by 0.1% from 1.8% to 1.7% compared to previous month. Similarly, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have decreased by 0.1% from -0.6% to -0.7%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2016 have remained stable at 5.3% on a simple average basis, and have fallen by 0.2% on a GDP weighted average basis from 5.7% to 5.5% compared to the previous month. There were differences across countries both for growth and inflation expectations. Growth expectations increased in Guatemala and Peru by 0.1%, while they decreased in Uruguay by 0.7%, in Brazil by 0.2% and in Colombia by 0.1% - and they remained stable in Paraguay at 3.0%, in Mexico at 2. 4% and in Chile at 1.7%. Inflation expectations increased in Colombia by 0.3%, Uruguay by 0.2% and Guatemala by 0.1%, and they decreased in Brazil by 0.4% and in Chile, Mexico and Paraguay by 0.1% in all three cases, and remained constant in Peru at 3. 5%. Expected growth for the region is as low as -3.8% for Brazil and as high as 3.7% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges from 3.2% in Mexico to 10.1% in Uruguay.