Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 58: December, 2015
Sosa, Mariano; Powell, Andrew
The November 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have remained constant at 2.0% compared to October. Also, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have remained constant during November at the level of -0.3%. Similarly, 2015 inflation expectations have remained stable at 5.4% on the simple average basis according to November surveys, and have increased by 0. 3% from 6.7% to 7.0% on the GDP weighted average basis. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2015 fell in Brazil and Paraguay by 0. 2% in both cases, remained constant in Colombia at 3.1%, Peru at 2.8% and Uruguay at 1.8%, and increased by 0. 1% three countries: Chile, Guatemala and Mexico. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2015 increased in Colombia by 0.6%, Brazil by 0.5%, Guatemala by 0. 2% and Peru by 0.1%. They remained constant in Uruguay at 9. 6% and Chile at 4.6%, and fell in Paraguay by 0.7% and Mexico by 0.3%. With this results, expected growth for 2015 now ranges between 3.2% in Brazil and 3.7% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges between 2.4% in Mexico and 10.3% in Brazil.