Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): No. 54: August, 2015
Sosa, Mariano; Powell, Andrew
The July 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have decreased by 0.2% from 2.7% to 2.5%. Moreover, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have fallen by 0.2%, from 0.7% to 0.5%. Regarding inflation expectations, surveys indicate that inflation expected for the region in 2015 has remained stable at 4.9% on the simple average basis, and has increased by 0.2% from 6.1% to 6.3% on the weighted average basis. Comparing the June and July surveys, expected 2015 growth has decreased in Paraguay (by 0.5%), Peru (by 0.4%), Brazil (by 0.3%), Colombia (by 0.2%), Guatemala (by 0.1%) and Uruguay (by 0.1%), while it has remained stable in Mexico at 2.6% and in Chile at 2.3%. Inflation expectations have risen in Brazil (by 0.3%), Uruguay (by 0.3%) and Peru (by 0.1%). They have remained constant in Paraguay (at 4.5%), Colombia (at 3.9%) and Chile (at 3.8%), and have decreased in Guatemala (by 0.3%) and Mexico (by 0.1%). Expected growth now ranges between 4.0% (Paraguay) and -1.7% (Brazil), while expected inflation for 2015 ranges between 9.2% (Brazil) and 2.8% (Mexico).