Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): No. 51: May, 2015
Arce, Fernando; Powell, Andrew
The April 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that both the simple average growth expectations for 2015 and the GDP weighted average growth for the eight countries covered has decreased by 0.1%, the former from 3.0% to 2.9% and the latter from 1.2% to 1.1%. Inflation expectations for 2015 have increased in the past month, also by 0.1% on a simple average basis, from 4.6% to 4. 7%, and on a GDP weighted average basis, from 5.7% to 5.8%. Comparing the March and April surveys, expected 2015 growth did not increase in any country covered in the REVELA database. Rather, growth expectations decreased in Brazil (by 0.2%), Mexico (by 0.1%), Peru (by 0.5%) and Uruguay (by 0.1%). Finally, in four countries they remained stable. This was the case in Chile (at 2.8%), in Colombia (at 4.3%), Guatemala (at 3.8%) and in Paraguay (at 4.5%). Expected growth now ranges between 4.5% (Paraguay) and -1.1% (Brazil). Inflation expectations rose in Brazil (by 0.1%), Chile (by 0.2%), Colombia (by 0.1%), Peru (by 0.1%) and Uruguay (by 0.1%) and remained stable in the three other countries of the REVELA database.