Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): No 42: July, 2014
Arce, Fernando; Powell, Andrew
The June 2014 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that average growth expectations for 2014 have fallen from 3.6% to 3.4% while inflation expectations for 2014 have remained stable at 4.8%. In all but one of the countries studied (the exception being Colombia), expected 2014 growth decreased between the May and June surveys. Indeed, expected growth fell in Brazil (0.4%), Chile (0. 2%), Guatemala (0.1%), Mexico (0.1%), Paraguay (0.2%), Peru (0.2%) and Uruguay (0.2%). Expected growth now ranges between 5.0% (Peru) to 1.2% (Brazil). The GDP weighted average inflation expectation for the region for 2014 is 5.3% and the GDP weighted average growth expectation is 2.1%. Inflation expectations rose in Chile (0.1%), Colombia (0.2%), Paraguay (0.1%) and Peru (0.1%) and fell in Guatemala (0.1%).