Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 56: October, 2015

Date
Nov 2015
The September 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have decreased by 0. 2%, from 2. 4% to 2. 2%, compared to August. Furthermore, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have decreased by 0. 4%, from 0. 3% to -0. 1%, falling below zero. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2015 have increased by 0. 2%, from 5. 1% to 5. 3%, considering a simple average, and by 0. 1% from 6. 4% to 6. 5%, on a GDP weighted average basis. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2015 have fallen in Brazil by 0. 7%, Uruguay by 0. 4%, and Guatemala and Paraguay by 0. 1% in both cases. They have remained constant in Colombia at 3. 5%, Peru at 2. 8%, Mexico by 2. 3% and Chile at 2. 2%. Inflation expectations for 2015 increased by 0. 5% in Chile, Colombia and Peru, by 0. 4% in Uruguay and by 0. 2% in Brazil compared to previous month. They remained stable in Mexico at 2. 8% and decreased by 0. 2% in Guatemala and by 0. 1% in Paraguay. With this results, expected growth for 2015 now ranges between -2. 7% in Brazil and 3. 9% in Paraguay, while expected inflation ranges between 2. 8% in Mexico and 9. 6% in Uruguay.