Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): No. 50: April, 2015

Date
May 2015
The March 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered has decreased by 0. 1%, from 3. 1% to 3. 0% while the GDP weighted average growth expectation fell by 0. 3%, from 1. 5% to 1. 2%. Inflation expectations for 2015 have increased in the past month, by 0. 2% on a simple average basis, from 4. 5% to 4. 7%, and by 0. 4% on a GDP weighted average basis, from 5. 3% to 5. 7%. Comparing the February and March surveys, expected 2015 growth only increased in one country covered in the REVELA database, Chile, increasing from 2. 7% to 2. 8%. At the same time, growth expectations decreased in Brazil (by 0. 5%), Mexico (by 0. 1%), Peru (by 0. 4%) and Uruguay (by 0. 1%). Finally, in three countries they remained stable. This was the case in Colombia (at 4. 3%), Guatemala (at 3. 8%) and Paraguay (at 4. 5%). Expected growth now ranges between 4. 5% (Paraguay) to -0. 9% (Brazil). Inflation expectations rose in Brazil (by 0. 8%), Chile (by 0. 3%), Colombia (by 0. 3%), Peru (by 0. 3%) and Uruguay (by 0. 1%) and fell only in Guatemala (by 0. 1%).