TY  - GEN
AU  - Vaughan, William J.
AU  - Darling, Arthur H.
AU  - Rodríguez, Diego J.
TI  - Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis
PY  - 2011
Y1  - 2011/08/15
DO  - 10.18235/0008825
AB  - This technical paper argues that Monte Carlo risk analysis offers a more comprehensive and informative way to look at project risk ex-ante than the traditional (and often arbitrary), one-influence-at-atime sensitivity analysis approach customarily used in IDB analyses of economic feasibility. The case for probabilistic risk analysis is made using data from a project for cleaning up the Tietê river in São Paulo, Brazil. A number of ways to handle uncertainty about benefits are proposed, and their implications for the project acceptance decision and the consequent degree of presumed project risk are explained and illustrated.
UR  - https://doi.org/10.18235/0008825
ER  -