Caribbean Economics Quarterly: Volume 12, Issue 2: Global and Regional Economies at a Crossroads

The global economy and Caribbean regional economies are at a crossroads. In general terms, tourism-oriented economies have recovered more rapidly than expected from the sharp pandemic-induced contraction of 2020. Commodity prices have subsided; however, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, with persistent negative effects on households across the region, while at the same time buoying macroeconomic prospects for commodity exporters. Regional economies have grown faster than the global economy, recovering from a deeper shock, but growth rates are likely to converge to pre-pandemic levels unless there are significant structural changes to enhance productivity, country circumstances vary substantially, as noted in the country sections of this report. Some countries (e.g., The Bahamas and Jamaica) tourism sectors have recovered more rapidly than others (e.g., Barbados), and there is the hydrocarbon-fueled extraordinary growth of Guyana that dwarfs the economic growth of all countries in the Western Hemisphere. Key risks and opportunities also vary across countries, and these are analyzed in the country sections of the report.